Dear Friends,
Having reviewed economic assumptions/perspectives and realigned the probable scenarios, from now on we will comment on the ideas and proposals by the presidential candidates, and thus provide a better understanding of how the economy can perform according to each government platform.
However far from a clear-cut structure of voter preference in recent times, the month of July has evolved a great deal in terms of party coalitions and alignment of possible candidates for vice president. Despite the notion that vice-president is an empty suit, since re-democratization three vice-presidents came to take office (José Sarney, Itamar Franco and Michel Temer), but it has been quite troublesome for each postulant to find his/her match. At any rate, choosing these names, as a rule, increments the allied base of support, increases the time of the free radio and television adds that a candidate is eligible to, whilst also increasing votes in a given region, political group or sector.
In this line, the names of the candidates for president and vice-president are defined in the party national conventions at the beginning of August and on the AUG/15th the deadline for registration of party candidacy in the Superior Electoral Court. Really? Hope so. In Brazil, anything can happen… one should not doubt it. The PT will not let go of Lula’s running and will pursue this goal to the fullest, at the cost of even greater political instability. Political instability that has imposed a significant burden on our economy, our finances, and our institutions, and has increasingly driven Brazil from the foreign investors’ radar. Yes, although the scenarios are clearer, this does not mean that they are good enough or in the same direction. No, they’re not. The political environment we live in is a troubled one, and the normal electoral process (even without Lula!), apart from absolute unpredictability, can also reserve unpleasant surprises. Brazil’s governability will hang by a thread throughout these elections, due either to the ability of the future ruler to deal with Congress, or by the quality of its administration’s program to ensure approval of reforms needed to improve public finances and economic growth. The risk of lacking governability exists, and our Congress has learned how to pursue a president’s impeachment, but at a very high cost. Let’s hope that the opening phrase of this American journalist Walter Cronkite, which fit our last presidential elections quite well, does not continue to identify us: “We are not educated well enough to perform the necessary act of intelligently selecting our leaders.”
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